Backtest historical pump.fun analysis

Only tokens older than 60 min are counted (settled outcome). DB has 2227 historical, 2227 scored.
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Population (n=1454 settled tokens)

Avg multiple
0.90x
median 0.59x
Graduated
13
of 2227 total
rug
539
37.1%
flat
787
54.1%
small_pump
110
7.6%
good_pump
18
1.2%
moonshot
0
0.0%

Intrinsic score → outcome (the key result)

Score bandCountAvg multMedian% ≥ 2x% ≥ 5x% ≥ 50x (moon)Best
0.00–0.30 1454 0.90x 0.59x 4.7% 1.2% 0.00% 25x

Feature correlations

Featuren withavg mult withmoon% withn w/oavg mult w/omoon% w/oVerdict
has_twitter 1029 0.87x 0.00% 425 0.97x 0.00% neutral
has_telegram 20 0.73x 0.00% 1434 0.90x 0.00% neutral
has_website 554 0.83x 0.00% 900 0.94x 0.00% neutral
nsfw 11 0.90x 0.00% 1443 0.90x 0.00% neutral
replies_5+ 0 0.00x 0.00% 1454 0.90x 0.00% negative

Top moonshots in dataset

SymbolMintMultATH mcapGraduatedIntrinsicDecisionTwitter
HORMUZSAFE Hormuz Safe HdtMbxQr… 25x $123,430 ✓ 0.12 skip 𝕏
COMPASS Compass Cz4tg3cb… 24x $120,042 ✓ 0.16 skip 𝕏
Boner Phon Boner Phone 8y14htkU… 21x $107,083 ✓ 0.12 skip 𝕏
HORMUZ Hormuz Safe J58dxQ34… 21x $106,048 ✓ 0.12 skip 𝕏
HS Hormuz Safe diK2uVBp… 21x $104,066 ✓ 0.04 skip 𝕏
$hituni unicorn DGdzX3Rk… 14x $71,234 0.16 skip
Kai-kun 父親犬 GmdtfoVW… 13x $64,302 ✓ 0.12 skip 𝕏
HELL Hell Wolf LaJQJL47… 12x $60,799 0.16 skip
TURTLE Turtle 8vJvynCe… 11x $56,227 0.16 skip
zyn zynnner CyUWWFVU… 10x $51,335 0.16 skip
Yoda May The Force Be With You 6WFLob1N… 10x $49,196 ✓ 0.12 skip 𝕏
MUNOKAMI Munokami.com Game JCbmQVs4… 10x $49,051 ✓ 0.16 skip
🤨 Face with Raised Eyebrow B8oVNMRv… 10x $48,548 ✓ 0.00 skip 𝕏
UNPC unpredictable coin 4iMy6xr4… 10x $47,620 ✓ 0.16 skip 𝕏
BCI Beanie EoSFcA1P… 9x $43,708 ✓ 0.16 skip 𝕏